In today’s American politics, there may be no place perceived as more “red” (Republican-voting) than the Lone Star State. Texas, the home of the Alamo, the gun rack, and the 72-ounce steak, hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since before Ronald Reagan; George W. Bush won the state by over 20 percentage points, twice. But demographic forces are changing the face of Texas, and it may not be long before its voting hue changes as well. Migration of African-Americans and Hispanics in search of work, and differential birth rates in those populations, have made Texas a majority-minority state, and state population growth is expected to come almost entirely from minority populations. From 2010-2014, Hispanic population rose by 9.4%, African-American by 8.9%, and White non-Hispanic by just 2.6% (U.S. Census, 2015).
I am simulating the effects of those demographic changes to predict when Texas might flip over to being a blue state. You can try out the simulation yourself, and play with my assumptions about turnout and voting profiles to see how they might affect the future of Texas.